The Sound of Music

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I’m in this camp. It seems to be obviously true. I can’t think of a song from the last five years that might stand the test of time — but I’m almost certainly wrong.

It seems to correlate with openness to new ideas. By 35, you are most likely who you are are going to be. Once you hit 60, you definitely aren’t changing. 

The same is true of technological trends, the early adopters, the people open to the change, are young people who don’t even notice and just accept it as reality. At the release of GPT5 CEO, Sam Altman said “A kid born today will never be smarter than AI”. My instant reaction to that is to disbelieve because it is simultaneously annoying and sad. Also, how is he measuring “smart”?  

The young person, born today, won't care. That will just be how it is and they won’t think about it and it won’t upset them at all. 

The same will be true of money. You loved your dollars, like your grandparents loved their farthings. 

Adamant Capital

I first encountered the Adamant Capital report in 2019. At the time our fund was just a year old. We had endured a terrible time, down 40% in the first six months. We generally shared the Adamant Research view that we would have to consolidate somewhere under the $10k mark for a while. We did and things progressed from there.

They had produced earlier reports too, like this in 2012. 

Their latest report is here. 

My main takeaway remains the same “Global macro predicament is a powerful tailwind for bitcoin”. Ultimately that is the purpose of the core asset in the class. That there is a need for a fundamental restructure of finance globally. Most of the Western world borrows without limit. In Europe many have debt burdens well in excess of 100% of GDP, America too. 

When I read the price predictions I find them less interesting than the underlying dynamic. My personal view is that bitcoin supplants gold as the go to asset for inflation proofing savings. Ultimately people just want to be able to save the fruits of their labour in something that cannot be eroded at someone else's whim. 

The elevator pitch for bitcoin is this. 

“I can save and enjoy the benefits of global technological progress without having to spin the wheel in the Wall Street Casino.” 

It’s a very modest promise but there is unlimited demand for the product that delivers it. 

Hotel California

I was ruminating on this when considering the predicament that the British government finds itself in. Their budget is due in October. They have a 5% deficit, a promise to balance the budget by 2030 (ho,ho). They have also committed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP over the same period. 

All ambitious and noble goals but they are little but harder than they were because Britain foolishly chased away all their wealthy expats, preferring to replace them with windmills 

They do not really have the capacity to raise income taxes any higher either. The top rate of tax in Britain is 47%, but for a brief while if you are in the £100-£125k range (which is only train drivers these days) you enjoy a marginal tax rate of 62% (because the zero rate band tapers away). 

In theory they could increase it by more, but almost certainly it would raise less money. As my friends in the UK pointed out “People gave up trying that hard a long time ago”.

The situation is mirrored across Europe and the West. We are likely at the limit of what income tax can endure and we are also precisely at the moment when relative incomes are going to steeply decline in the capital mix because of AI. Labour just is not going to command anywhere near the fees it currently does. Taxes will move to capital. 

As a result governments are getting more innovative with their extraction methods.

Australia’s: “Unrealised Capital Gains Tax” - paper gains in pension funds now taxed, potentially forcing asset sales. 

Frances (proposed): “Targeted Universal Tax” - if you leave France for a lower tax jurisdiction then you must continue paying tax as though you were in France (as proposed the obligation is indefinite too).

Netherlands (proposed): “Five year exit tax”  - if you leave you must pay Dutch tax on your income and capital gains for the next five years. 

The latter two are probably more alarming than the Australian version. The Americans already tax their citizens on global income and have done so for a long time. I would think this will become universal in the next 25 years because it's easy to justify by simply saying “America does it”. 

You can always renounce your US citizenship to avoid it but in doing so you trigger taxes as though you had sold everything, also true in Australia if you opt to leave. 

On the subject of hostage taking then, if you can’t leave without paying ransom, what does that make you? 

401k

Another day, another Executive Order. Trump has signed 186 since January, compared with 220 in his entire first term. The latest order aims to ‘Democratize Access to Alternative Assets”, which among other things includes digital assets. 

The US Labour Secretary now has 180 days to “clarify the rules”.

“The Secretary shall prioritize actions that may curb ERISA litigation that constrains fiduciaries’ ability to apply their best judgment in offering investment opportunities to relevant plan participants.”

It would seem that no change in the law is required to make some of this happen, simply the guidelines by which advisers operate.

$9 trillion sits in US 401k accounts. 

Euro-Trash

It’s summertime at the ECB, not much happens. I took the opportunity to look through their staff vacancies. The one most suited to me was ‘Procurement Administrator’. 

As a Procurement Administrator, I would be a member of the procurement team within the ‘Directorate Administration’, reporting directly to the Director of Administration. Specifically, I do not believe the role reports directly to the Director of Administration, the Directorate does. It has 170 staff, I would report to another person, who would report to someone who reports to the Director. 

The selling points of the role are laid out clearly:

In your role as a Procurement Administrator, you will play a key role in supporting the Directorate’s three divisions (Administrative Services, Premises, and Security and Safety) by delivering procurement expertise and ensuring compliance with the ECB’s procurement framework. You will collaborate closely with the Central Procurement Division, which provides central coordination, oversight, advice and support for the ECB’s procurement activities. 

So, while I would be in Procurement, it would not be Central Procurement. They report centrally, to someone else. Perhaps I will meet them one day, or indeed, join the “Central” team. 

Helpfully, the ECB also provides terms and conditions of employment. This document is the real deal. Guess what happens if you get sacked:

A year of pay (and maybe more) for being a bit rubbish?

I was even more excited by Article 28 (iii) which allows you to take additional leave for somebody else's wedding?

That’s on top of the 30.5 days of annual leave plus the 14 bank holidays. A total of 9 weeks of leave each year, as standard, not including all the weddings I might attend.

Finally, ECB staff members only need to go to the office half the time. The 50% rule was extended for another two years earlier this year. In theory, I could work at the office for four months a year, and spend the other eight either working from home, on holiday, or attending weddings.

When they finally sack me for abject laziness I would then receive two years of partial pay and a relocation allowance to help me ‘adjust’. 

You can apply here (EU Citizens only).

Further Information

Our July 2025 report to investors can be found here.